Security, the great challenge of the region

The character in this story is not real, but he might as well be. We will call him 'Mateo Rodriguez'. Mateo' would be, let's say, 18 years old. He would still be a teenager, but also an adult. A citizen who, by law, would be able to vote, and would also go to jail if proven guilty of a crime in any of the 33 countries that make up the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region.

If this 'Mateo' were to exist, the odds would be high that he would lead a turbulent and dangerous life where he was born and raised. Statistics reveal that 160 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean, almost a quarter of the total population, are young. The same figures conclude that about half of them do not finish their schooling. And that many are considering leaving their birthplace soon to seek their fortune in the United States, Spain or another developed country. And that they think that the best thing for their country -not so developed- would be the arrival of an 'iron fist' regime, because, like more than 40% of the inhabitants of LAC, they would have already lost faith in democracy.

One more fact: young people in the region, like 'Mateo Rodriguez', are four times more likely to be murdered than if they lived in another part of the world. One out of every three murders occurs in LAC, even though it is home to less than 10% of the world's population.

But that's not all: World Population Review, an independent organization that monitors, analyzes and makes projections on population issues, recently published a list of the 50 most violent cities in the world that are concentrated in just 11 countries, nine of which belong to LAC: Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.

"Without security, development is not possible, and without development, security is not possible," said Sergio Díaz Granados, executive president of CAF -development bank of Latin America and the Caribbean-, at its latest annual conference, held in Washington, DC. "We have to exercise our collective responsibility to take decisive action against the challenges that threaten security," he added.

According to Díaz Granados, citizen insecurity is one of the most worrying "historical burdens" for the region. And the causes of this insecurity change very little from country to country: poverty, unemployment, easy access to knives and firearms, micro and drug trafficking, inequality?

Yes, inequality, because the region is also the most unequal area in the world. CAF's RED "Inherited Inequalities" (2022) highlights that in LAC the poorest 50% of the population receives 10% of the income, while the richest 10% receives 55%. In terms of wealth, the concentration is much greater: the richest 10% accumulate 77% of the wealth and the poorest 50% only 1%.

Moreover, crime has not only become more organized, it has become more sophisticated and does not stop at the limits of its business. In some areas of some countries, gangs and criminal organizations have even replaced the role of the State, which has to invest more and more in security, while seeing its opportunities for economic growth reduced by criminals. According to a 2023 study by the International Monetary Fund, reducing the level of crime in Latin America to the level of the world average would increase the region's annual economic growth by 0.5 percentage points.

Democracy loses

Another victim of crime growth is democracy. Different studies show that only three out of five adults in the region believe that it is still the best form of government. Moreover, only two of those same five individuals are satisfied with the results that democracy has brought them, mainly because they consider that it has not improved their lives: it has not helped them to cover even their most basic needs, such as food or security.

Rebecca Bill Chávez, president of The Inter-American Dialogue (DIA), a Washington-based think tank that promotes prosperity, social inclusion and sustainable development in the Americas, finds it not surprising that confidence in the democratic system is not seeing its best days: "We should not be surprised that people are losing faith in democracy because they can't send their children to school safely.

"Security threats transcend national borders. Drug trafficking and organized crime corrupt institutions, generate migration and destabilize economies. Citizens do not perceive the tangible benefits of democracy," admitted Dominican President Luis Abinader at the inauguration of the most recent CAF Annual Conference in Washington.

Several international organizations agree that violence and crime contribute much of the blame for this phenomenon of distrust. And they also agree that as skepticism towards democracy rises, enthusiasm for governments that deal harshly with criminals and violent individuals will increase. A Latinobarómetro survey estimated that confidence in an authoritarian system has risen from 12% to 17% in recent years, while confidence in democracy has fallen from 56% to 48%.

The light at the end of the tunnel

For some experts, the easiest way to understand crime is to see it as a contagious disease: a virus with the potential to become an epidemic if not controlled in time. "Viruses spread first among the most vulnerable (lacking defenses), and then affect the not-so-vulnerable. The virus then mutates, takes new forms and strategically settles in population subgroups that share a high average number of risk factors," says a CAF report on the subject.

This approach indicates that it is not only key to stop the spread of crime or disease, but also to ensure a clean and safe environment so that there is no risk of a health or violence epidemic. Cure, but also prevent.

The comprehensive response to crime, given its complexity, is not a new approach. In the conclusions of the RED "For a Safer Latin America", published more than 10 years ago, it was stated: "The design and effective implementation of policies (against crime) require first of all a diagnosis of the determinants of this phenomenon that goes beyond the simplistic rhetoric, in which crime is only a consequence of social deprivation or, alternatively, of the lack of a stricter control and punitive regime".

Research by different organizations has also concluded that strict policing strategies to impose order have not necessarily led to a reduction in crime and violence. On the other hand, those that, in addition to strict law enforcement, combine direct work with communities and social service have shown significant improvements in security.

These tactics, more focused on prioritizing "social construction" rather than "social repression", are known as "focused deterrence strategies". There are more than 50 studies - conducted over the last three decades and in various parts of the world - that support the theory that they are effective in reducing crime, especially when used in places where gangs or organized gangs are present.

But, of course, experts also agree that it is often easier and faster to fill a problematic block with well-armed police than to attack social problems, even though the evidence suggests that the most cost-effective investments are those that focus on early childhood and emphasize the key role of the family in providing adequate nutrition, protective parenting styles and an environment free of domestic violence, among other benefits.

The same evidence also indicates that it is never too late to use "targeted deterrence" strategies to reduce crime, even when the groups impacted are composed of the elderly. Back to metaphors and viruses: safe physical, social and home environments can also become epidemic and spread for the good of the entire community.

For the good of 'Mateo Rodriguez', the fictional young man at the beginning of this article. If the focus shifts from repressive security to more comprehensive security, with a strong social component, surely for him - and his children and grandchildren - there could be light at the end of the tunnel. Suddenly they could finish school; and perhaps they would not need to migrate to any other corner of the world; and perhaps they would believe more in democracy; and surely they would even die of old age, without fear of being killed, in a region no longer so insecure or so violent.